They homeless believe they hold the trump card of experience in the matter and believe that from their time as parents which included raising four children that they are certain spankings do not affect children in that way because their own children experienced spanking and they saw first-hand that it would cause their kids to behave better. Their logic however shows serious flaws that can be explained. Mom and Pop have a pet belief from their personal experience on this issue and their argument shows signs of confirmation bias. On Instance of this confirmation blast Is an example of a biased search.
Meaning that they only searched through their own memories for cases of spankings and came to the conclusion that their children behaved better after spankings and our productive members of society so the spankings could not have had negative effects. This however is biased because only using the example of four children who grew up in the same social setting is not representative of the general population and is therefore an invalid argument. Mom and Pop now understand that their argument did not include enough data to be used as a valid argument however are not ready to totally switch sides on the matter.
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They ask for a report on the argument made by the study and want to know about the validity of Its findings. Upon reading the piece It becomes apparent that It too does not give everything needed to be a valid argument. It withholds the vital Information of how It went about collecting Its results. You explain to Mom and Pop that in order for such a study to be taken seriously it must explain how it received the findings that it did. They learn that much like their own downfall it is very possible that the test was done with a sample size so small that it cannot be considered representative of the people.
Another issue that is once again similar to an issue of Mom and Pops argument is that of outside factors such as location, age, gender, and any other possible influencing factors. Finally you explain to them what data must be available in order for it to be used as evidence in a valid argument and that is the test population size, must be large enough group that it can be considered representative, and who was tested, must either be done at random (preferred) or the two groups must be matched on confounding factors so that no other outside Influences can affect the results enough to alter any findings.
Mom and Pop left feeling satisfied that they now understood what was wrong with their logic and how to better their use of evidence in arguments. 2. In this situation Pat is dealing with a altering decision he is about to make so he wants to look carefully into every aspect of his decision. When breaking down his reasons he would like to carefully examine each reason. The first reason for not changing majors is that all his life Pat and his parents wanted him to be a doctor. For this instance Pat is dealing with the reputation cost of his choice.
All his life Pat has wanted to be a doctor and walking UT on that idea now may disappoint his parents. Despite his belief that they will still support him the reputation cost will take its toll. While this should be factored in by Pat it is not the most important factor. The next issue becomes the amount already invested into studying biology. Time spent studying, energy spent doing assignments, and money spent on classes. All of these investments came directly from Pats hard work and to change majors would be to throw it all away.
One may think that all of these factors should be included in making such a large decision but reprovingly they are all irrelevant in the decision. This is a case of sunk costs, meaning that all of the time, money, energy, and anything else that Pat has invested into studying biology is already gone. Regardless of the decision that Pat makes on his major nothing in the past will change. Pat should be purely focusing on the future and how this decision will affect that as opposed to dwelling on what has happened in the past. This leads us to our final point and this one is the most important for Pat. This notion is that of opportunity cost.
To find the opportunity cost an individual must look at the options and determine which one holds the highest expected benefit. Pat is doing well in biology however is not loving the subject and does not see it as a viable career option. When it comes to physics Pat has really enjoyed the classes so far yet is unsure as to whether he will continue to be as enthusiastic about the subject. Only Pat can make his own decision and the best way to go about that is by thinking about which of the two options will yield a higher expected benefit for him in the future and pick whichever he believes is his best option.