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With earthquakes, history will tell us that one is possible, but it can’t say when one will occur, or at what time, or at what magnitude With tropical cyclones we know of the existence of a storm about 7 or 8 days in advance, but there is still great uncertainty about exact location of landfall until 24 hours before. Useful tools: satellites- ability to see where tropical cyclones are or where a volcano begins to heat up. Satellites are also used in making predictions about the potential for an area to burn.
The two tools used here are Greenness mapping and the Fire Potential Index (PI) Super powerful computers can track storms: need phenomenal amounts of computer power to record all the data points for tropical cyclones Doppler radar can detect a signature on the back end of a tornado, If a “hook” Is detected a warning Is automatically triggered, this gives people precious dilation seconds to seek shelter Gas analyzers-Detect a build up sulfur doodle In volcanoes Infrared spectroscopy can detect the heat signature of magma as rises through a volcano Strain Gauges detect ground movement, a possible precursor to an earthquake Radon build up in ell water can indicate an imminent earthquake Animal behavior Preventive Measures Usually the answer is no, there are no preventive measures we cannot stop natural hazard events from taking place we can however, engage in mitigation strategies to reduce damages Can we prohibit people living in a certain area? A disaster prone area: we can Increase Insurance rates. Warnings: -When do we warn? How should we warn -unrealistic optimism -However If you over warn, If nothing happens people will not take warnings seriously on another occasion. Example: Hurricane fatigue Philosophical Change Equilibrium paradigm, maintaining the status quo versus Disturbance theory Stafford Act (1988) Mandates that all government entities in the U. S. Have to have a mitigation plan in order to qualify for government aid after a natural disaster.
EST 330 TA notes: 02/12/14 Two Types of Amalgamation 1 ) Structural Amalgamation: Engineered solution, architectural 2) Non- Structural: Evolving hazardous areas by relocating, Involving environmentalists [passive design] The 4 stages of Emergency Management 3) Response 4) Recovery National Goal To increase public awareness in order to decrease fatalities Mitigation and Land Use Planning Four elements of hazard mitigation plans. Evaluation Description Hazard mitigation goals and objectives Implementation Land Use Planning tools. Development Regulations Zoning and subdivision ordinances Setback regulations Dune-protection laws Capital improvement policies Land and Property Acquisition Acquisition of open space Transfer of development rights EST 330 Notes week 3 Geological Disasters Plate tectonics Alfred Wagner- proposed this theory and wrote “Origins of plate-tectonic” When first proposed, it was ridiculed. Revival of continental drift theory by Harry Hammond Hess
Guests were found to be increasing in depth in the sea because of being pulled further and further down the pacific plate. Supported Wagner Vine and Matthew Phlegmatic striping : now we know that the theory of plate tectonics is true. Seafloor spreading Most earthquakes occur near the edge of the tectonic plate or on the plates. Inter-plate: Earthquakes occur between the plates Intra-plate: means “among,” not at the edge of the plate According to CREED, earthquakes are the only rapid-onset disaster – Sudden impact with no warning – Earthquakes itself don’t really cause deaths, mostly it is caused indirectly through alluding collapse and rubble. 5,000-6,000 earthquakes occur a year that are not felt by humans, however are by animals Buff-Buff toad- can detect seismic activity: 96% of male toads abandoned their breeding site 5 days before an earthquake (74 kilometers from the earthquakes epicenter), and then they returned after the earthquake. First scientific documented Examples of Intra-plate earthquake: New Madrid, Missouri 1811-1812 Types of Tectonic Plate Boundaries Divergent rift: plates are pulling apart, sea floor spreading Convergent rift: two plates head on collide and create mountain ranges or one is subjected and one flows underneath the other producing a deep marine trench Shear boundaries: grinding pass each other.
Richter Scale: quantitative, measures amplitude of seismic waves, logarithmic scale Modified Marcella Index: qualitative, shows severity of earthquake depending upon the location of the person describing the event Different Types of Focus: 1) Shallow focus: 1-40 miles deep, makes up about 80% of quakes, it is also the most destructive type because it is closer and directly above earth’s surface. 2) Intermediate focus: 40-180 miles deep makes up about 16% of the earthquakes. 3) Deep focus: 180 miles or more make up about 4% of earthquakes Epicenter 02/19/14 Movie Screening: “Deadliest Earthquakes” Haiti, January 12, 2010- in less than a minute, the city was buried in the rubble (233,000 dead). Researcher knew that the Haitian earthquake was inevitable Researcher from Purdue University used a GAPS system to detect ground During the earthquake, a huge slippage takes place 30 CM to the east.
Haiti lies on many active faults It was 250 years ago that the last time an earthquake occurred in Haiti A Richter magnitude of 7 and above, could cause a great deal of damage. Calculating pressures and the stress between plates, will give more information on when or how soon the earthquake will occur. California: San Andrea Fault from North California to Mexico. Northerner quake killed about 60 people and affected 20 million people affected (Richter magnitude of 6. 7)- predicted if it occurred again, the impact would be XX greater. Current study plant sensors in deep holes in fault lines, listening for a sound signature that may serve as a precursor to an earthquake.