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The changes will not occur in a fast way, nor will they only exert a negative effect: for example, in some parts of the world it may see improvement in the economy, by the fact that a warmer climate can stimulate better agricultural outcomes in countries that nowadays are too cold to have a big economy in agriculture. A new climate will be beneficial to some societies and disadvantageous to others. However, the disadvantages, especially the increased incidence of disastrous natural phenomena, far outweigh the advantages.
These disasters include the increasing sea level, changes in precipitation patterns resulting in floods and droughts, greater intensity of natural effects such as hurricanes, species extinctions and other factors to be discussed ahead. We can already see the patterns of destruction emerging, but we do not yet know the ultimate outcome. We do know that those most responsible for the global warming effect are the developed nations of North America, Western Europe and China.
But the so-called developing countries will feel the most negative effects of global warming, because these nations have fewer resources to cope financially, scientifically and technologically to deal with the problems caused by global warming. Given the gradual nature of the changes, and using the knowledge we’ve already gained about the impacts of climate change thus AR, this paper is an opportunity to pause and consider the societies most prone to suffer from this global problem in the future, and the greatest impacts they will bear.
The poorest societies will be the ones most affected in a disadvantageous way by climate change. Those societies are primarily located in Africa, Asia, Latin America and in small islands states. The reason why these societies are the ones that will be the most affected is that they are not ready to deal with global warming yet. They do not have the same wealth of developed countries to find solutions to the climate hanged: their prerogative up until now has been the development of systems and solutions for their nation’s most pressing problems.
A simple example might be the poor farmers in India who depends on the vitality of their crops. Since they are poor, they may not have many opportunities to improve their farming skills and infrastructure in preparation for periods of intense drought. In contrast, floods in Central Europe hardly lead to people becoming homeless. That is partially involved due to the wealth of those countries, with support systems in place for emergency situations and money for the reconstruction and adaptation to climate change.
Though these scenes are completely different, it is clear that those impacts will have stronger impacts on the society and human lives, in developing countries without the most of the developing countries are situated in tropical and sub-tropical areas and endure extreme climates already; places where the climate is marked by high temperatures all year round and the amount of rainfall can be quite variable. Those societies are highly dependent on the agricultural life, and already facing problems with the poor quality of soils, the spread of pests and parasites, and particular faculty with water availability because of the climate. Put simply, the changed climate is already an issue at those places, but with any rise of temperature in those areas, those societies will increasingly face disproportional damage in their economy and livelihoods compared to their contribution to the problem. Climate change will also affect human health.
The heat waves, droughts, and other natural disasters will increase in frequency and severity, affecting human health directly. Heat waves are already shown to lead elderly people and the poor to death, and also increasing pollution in major cities. Frequently storms would cause major floods, spreading diseases around cities, and also causing indirect effects such as loss of property and protection, reduction of water and food supplies, the spread of infectious diseases, and the displacement of people.
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to natural disasters. Developing countries already fall behind to provide food, housing, food and safe water to main use, and than on those countries would not be able to afford the extra cost with the natural disasters. African nations will be among those societies that will bear the greatest impact of lobar warming. The continent is already a victim of its natural climate, but its situation will undoubtedly get worse with the effects of global warming.
The entire continent suffers already at the hands of strong droughts, poverty and socio- economic disruption and those negatives effect will interfere in how the continent will copes with climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (hereinafter UNFROCK) predicts that as a result from global warming, the climate in Africa will be more extreme, which meaner the temperature will rise significantly, coupled with a decrease in annual rainfall, increasing period of droughts in the continent and an increase in frequency and intensity of natural events such as drought and floods.
The results of the climate change will increase water stress for many countries causing civil wars between countries. Meanwhile, agricultural production will be compromised, resulting in an increase in the number of people suffering from hunger and malnutrition. The transmission of blood-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue will increase as the temperature changes to better suit the vectors that transmit those diseases. The ecosystem would also suffer radically; parts of southern Africa would suffer from desertification and driers, resulting in the extinction of many species.
The rise in the sea level will result in inundation along many coastal cities is countries such as Egypt and Senegal and the degradation of the marine ecosystems therein. The adoption of Africa to Global warming will be hampered by the fact that most African nations already have low levels of education and a low GAP. This case of Africa demonstrates the interconnectedness and interdependence of human society and the ecosystem we n social, health and ultimately economical factors, making Africa the continent that will get hardest hit by climate change.
Over the next fifty years Latin America will have to deal with huge consequences of climate change on their society and economy, starting with the disappearance of glaciers, whose seasonal discharges are responsible for water supplies and hydro- energy in countries such as Bolivia and Chile. 7 Latin America has some of the biggest stores of natural resources in the entire world. Their industries are mainly concentrated in the process of agricultural products and production of consumable odds, especially for the automotive industry. The agriculture is mainly found in regions that have tropical weather.
This region has started to see a couple of effects of global warming, starting with a tropical cyclone in the south of Brazil in 2008. It was the first cyclone recorded in the area, causing much loss of property and farms, with a big impact on the local economy as well as on the international markets. Floods have been occurring much more often in areas that were not prepared, increasing rodent-borne infections such as lepidopterist. On the other hand, areas in he north of the continent are experiencing extreme droughts with numerous socioeconomic impacts.
It is predicted that rains will occur less than normal, degrading the food production, thus causing serious problems to food security. The main risk in public health is the heat-stress that will be cause due to urban heat island effects in major cities. However, the greatest hazard posed by global warming in Latin America is the devastation of the Amazon region, which represents over half of the world’s remaining rainforest’s and is the largest collection of biodiversity of pieces in the entire world. 0 The report “The Risk Assessment of Amazon” tell us that 75% of the forest can be lost on the next twenty years and only 5% of the entire forest will remain in fifty years. The process is a result of different reasons, including logging, but the industrial demands driving such devastation are the same demands driving climate change. Adaptation in Latin America won’t be as hard as in Africa. Brazil, for example, will have a better capacity to adapt given that it has a stronger economy at the moment than any other country in Latin America.
Poverty is still a huge issue in Latin America and even though social-economical levels have been improving, against such measures as fresh water access and increasing life expectancy, global warming will still affect the country and those with the least resources to protect themselves and cope will once again suffer the most. The small islands will suffer, stemming mainly from two effects of climate change, those being the rise of the sea level, submerging low-lying atolls. Those islands that lie high enough will see an increase in extreme events such as cyclones and storm surge.
UNFROCK states that ” the small island developing States comprise 51 states and territories spread over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Coerces and Caribbean Sea, and are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and already feeling its impact”11. Once again we see the developing countries will suffer the most. With the rise of sea level comes destruction to infrastructure, as saltwater will contaminate drinking supplies leaving the state without fresh water. Floods will occur often having on some of these islands will be at risk of extinction.
According to the article from James M. Taylor at least two of the 104 Sanderson Islands on the coast of India have vanished in the last two years, the reason for which was the rising of sea level. 12 This shows that some small islands have already been swallowed by the sea, starting already to suffer from climate change, and have a low adaptive capacity, which is always related to their GAP. Food shortages, heat waves, floods and the migration of millions of people are Just a couple of example of effects of climate change on the Asian continent.
According to Gabrielle Walker and Sir David King, the writers of “The Hot Topic,” Asia will suffer room less rainfall in the rice-payday rich South and Southeast, which will affect agricultural production, risking of hunger and water shortages. 13 “Hundreds of millions of people who rely on the glacier melt from the Himalayas will also be affected with the decrease of rainfalls… In China alone 250 million people will be affected”14. In places like India where almost 70% of the workforce depends on agriculture, loss of production would cause massive rural exodus to the cities.
Once a farmer does not have a choice to sustain themselves on the land to produce money, hey will move into larger cities, creating greater slums with inadequate urban infrastructure. Regard Pushchair, the chairman of the climate panel of the United Nations, has mentioned already “the decrease in cereal production in Asia, and there will be adverse impacts on wheat grown, with rainfall problem because of climate change. ” It is easy to see the effects that are happening already.
According to Pushchair, with an increase of 0. ICC to temperatures in winter, wheat harvest becomes 0. 45 tons less per hectare, the current productivity in India is 2. 6 tons per hectares 5. Another problem would yet again be the rise in sea levels, which could flood the homes of millions of people in low areas of Vietnam, India and Bangladesh and many other countries, but mainly those ones for the fact that they are the most vulnerable ones, poor nations lacking a capacity for adoption through financial meaner.
While the biggest impacts of global warming will fall on the developing countries, developed countries will also be victims of global warming, the difference being that the developed countries are not so vulnerable to the effects for a couple of reasons. The capacity for adoption is much higher where richer countries have more financial resources to deal with global warming; they are more financially ready to take precautions with all the effects of climate change.
Another reason why the developed nations will not suffer such a big impact is that their economies are oftentimes only somewhat based on agriculture, as opposed to those developing countries where the biggest part of the economy is based on agricultural activities, and therefore more prone to fall in the wake of ecological imbalances. Wealthier nation are not altogether immune from the ecological effects: natural disasters will happen more often and intensely, such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and heat waves.
Further evidence to the interconnectedness of our globalizes world, our richer countries will inevitably feel the effects of climate change on poorest countries: “the large scale shocks and change, will also pose growing risks for rich countries, with increasing pressures for large-scale migration and political instability. “16 Australia is already the driest country in the world, with pre-existing pressure on water supplies. The predictions of the effect that climate change will have are extreme consequences on the economy, environment and on the society.
From the developed countries, Australia will be the one of the nations that is more vulnerable to the negative impacts of global warming, for partially depending of agriculture and also the prominence of its coast. Over the next fifty years Australia will see the decline of the rainfall, resulting on extensive periods of droughts. The rise of the sea level will have a big impact, as the population is highly concentrated in coastal areas, thus affecting a majority of the population. The increase of temperature in the ocean and on the land will result on the extinction of many ecosystems present on the island of Australia and its seas.
Most concerning is the coral bleaching of an enormous part of the Great Barrier Reef which is a major part of the Australian economy with tourism. The country will suffer a greater risk of bushfire, a problem that has been already been seen, such as when 173 people lost their lives in a bushfire in 2009. 17 The impact of global warming will be complex, but Australia’s relatively stable and strong economy leave it in a better position for a good adaptation to problem and contribution to global solutions, such as cooperation with goals to mitigate the emission of green gas house.
Europe has large climatic variation, and as such climate changes will affect regions differently. Some regions would have their benefits from global warming, but mostly would suffer consequences. Negative impacts will include the rise of the sea level affecting many countries but specially Netherlands “where 70% of the population would be threatened by a meter sea level rise. “18 In southern Europe the effects shall be of high temperatures and intense period of droughts, in regions already alienable to climate variability resulting in reduction of water availability.
Decrease of tourism as a result of this will be an effect affecting part of economy in countries like Spain, Portugal and Italy. Another effect would be reduced crop productivity, having a low impact on their economy. In the other hand northern Europe would have benefits from climate change; with the rise of temperature they would experience an increase in agricultural productivity, as well reducing energy use in winter. Mountainous areas will face glacier retreat, reducing the snow cover and also asking the tourism in this areas decrease and causing floods to cities close by.
The North American continent will have different effect, as the north will have some benefits, and while extreme negative effects will occur in the southern part. Starting with Canada, their agricultural economy will increase, the raise of temperatures will improve crop product, which now is hard given the low temperature. In the other hand many ecosystems will be extinct. Endangered species that are only found in regions with low temperatures would be affected the most. An example is the polar bear, one of the symbols of global warming.
Another good effect will be ” the reduced navigation period offering improved access to oil, gas and mineral resources and to isolated communities. “19 The United States of America would suffer an increase in more powerful natural disasters, such the hurricane Strain that devastated New Orleans in 2005 during the summer hurricane season, killing over 1 ,836 people. 20 The reduction of rainfall would affect states such as California and Mississippi, affecting water supplies. USA and Canada are the countries that will have a better adaptation in the future, Canada for not being so impacted by global warming and
USA for having good resources to deal with global warming. Industrialized nations are the main ones to blame for the emission of greenhouse gas in times past, giving rise to the climate change phenomenon we see today. However, the consequences will occur mainly in developing countries, for their not being ready to deal with climate change, since their economies are not in a strong position to face such challenges, and especially that most of the negative points in global warming will have extreme effect in those countries, making it hard to grow their economies.