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This report intends to highlight the current issues Startup faces and its impact on their earnings and share valuations. Tells industry in Singapore only has three players – Startup, Singlet and MI, thus, we would also look at Singlet and MI to aid in our analysis. In our report, we first use the SOOT analysis and Michael Porter’s five forces to address Startup current issues as the issues identified would affect Startup future earnings. The majority of the threats that Startup faced is brought up by Singlet.
Example, Singlet won the PL rights which results in a drop of subscribers for Cable TV for Startup. However, there are still opportunities to grow, from an example of reaping the benefits from the existing market. By using Michael Porter’s five forces, we analyzed that the level of competitive rivalry for the industry is strong. The historical calculations reflect the current issues that Startup faced hence deriving with various estimated valuation of Startup’s stock. The DuPont ROE approach gauges Startup’s recent financial performance, in comparison with the other two operators.
By putting all figures together, we saw that Startup ROE has always been the highest throughout the past few years in 2008 to 2012. Thus, we forecasted that Startup ROE will remain higher than its competitors. With application of various valuation models, we can examine the intrinsic value of Startup’s share price and make assumptions and estimation. Thereafter, this value was compared with the current market price to determine if the share is worth investing in. After much computation, the intrinsic share price of Startup is higher than the market share price, thus, it was undervalued.
Therefore, our group has decided to go forth with a SELL decision at the time of ululation. Contents 1 . About Startup Ltd 1. 1 . Company Background Startup Ltd, which started in year 2000, is the second operator in the Singapore telecommunications market. It is an info-communications company, providing a wide range of information, communications and entertainment services. Startup is a component stock of the Straits Times Index and the MASC.’ Singapore Free Index. Startup drives a HASP+ mobile network to support its nationwide GSM network, and an LET network with connection speeds of up to Mbps.
They also implement an island-wide HOFF network that carries multi-channel Cable TV services (including Internet TV, HDTV, and on-demand services) and high speed residential broadband services. They operate a widespread fixed network business too that provides voice, date and wholesale services. In addition, Startup tapped on Next Generation Nationwide Broadband Network to host advanced media-rich value-added services (Startup AAA). 2. SOOT Analysts on startup Ltd The comprehensive SOOT profile of Startup will provide the reader a detailed analysis of the organization’s business structure and operations. 2. 1 . Strengths 2. . 1. First Mover Advantage Startup has a competitive advantage over Singlet and MI with their cable television u to their first mover advantage into the Cable Television market. Being the first in the market allowed them to lock-in popular programs on exclusive contracts such as English Premier League (PL). Furthermore, Startup is the only cable TV that broadcast tennis channels, where subscribers are able to catch the entire top tennis events all year round. As long as having a Hub ID, subscribers can watch it on TV, or on laptops, tablets, and smartness via TV anywhere at Startup’s website (Startup Bibb). . 1. 2. Products and Services Mobile Market Although Startup’s market share standing is second in the mobile industry with 27. % in June 2012, their product offerings are very strong and competitive. Asinine News (2013) reported that Startup launched its High Definition (HAD) Voice technology in 4th March 2013. They are setting themselves apart because of its value added service in the 36 mobile network whereby the sound quality for local voice calls will be significantly improved. This will encourage new customers to switch over and customer loyalty among the existing customers.
This could lead to a revenue uplift of between 5-10%. Cable TV Market Startup monopolized in the Cable TV market between 2002 to 2007, until Singlet launched Minot in mid-2007. In order to stay competitive, Startup acquired many new channels. For instant, they acquired a new 24-hour Japanese entertainment channel in 2013 as there has been a lack of Japanese programmer on TV apart from Japan Hour (Straits Times Bibb). In order to tide itself from the loss of PL to Singlet, Startup’s TV revenue still remain robust with other strong channels like BEEF Euro 2012.
Statistics showed that ARPA increasing from $52 to $54 (Straits Times 2012). Startup is also the first to launch Lions as they see that there was much hype about local football after the Singapore national team won the last Suzuki Cup (Straits Times 20th). This shows that Startup is trying to increase the variety of channels offered and deciding what is to be shown on TV instead of allowing consumers to choose. 2. 2. Weaknesses 2. 2. 1 . Late-Mover Despite moving first into the cable television industry, Startup established itself much later than Singlet.
Startup was incorporated on 1998 while Singlet on 1992. Therefore, Singlet already seized the biggest share of the pie and established a respectable name that is highly recognized by consumers. Where else Startup which is new to the consumers will require a longer time to infiltrate into the Tells market ND build up consumers’ trust. In addition, Startup is a late-mover in LET rollover of G wireless data communications. Startup is expected to complete this project by the end of 2013. But by then, both competitors, MI & Singlet will already have nationwide LET coverage (Tells – Integrated Singapore, 2013).
Singlet’s fast and aggressive actions attribute to them being the Tells monopolist. 2. 2. 2. Global Presence Startup also have a smaller global presence as compared to Singlet who is the leading communications company in Asia. In the Superabundant Survey, Singlet ranks at no. 5 while Startup didn’t even make it to the list. Being a global company also means that their bargaining power is higher and their geographic presence is stronger (Superabundant, 2012). Although Singlet’s main market is concentrated in Singapore and Australia, they also have alliances situated in Indonesia, Belgium, India, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, and Honking.
This means that Singlet will be less dependent on Singapore market due to their diversification as compared to Startup. 2. 3. Opportunities 2. 3. 1. Fiber Broadband Figure 2: Data taken from Business Monitor International 2012. Figure 3: Data taken from Business Monitor International 2012. The appeal of high- speed broadband services will lead to the decline of fixed line business and increase the use of value-added services such as Poop and PIPIT using the fiber line. The Next Generation Broadband Network based on FIFTH will deliver 1 Gaps speeds in 201 5 (Business Monitor International 2012).
The growth momentum is expected to pick up in the next two years as operators persuade consumers to upgrade their existing broadband to the fiber technology. Towards the end of 2012, Startup’s figures were made up of 439,000 residential broadband subscribers from 431,000 in June 2011. On he other hand, cable modem subscriptions declined from 696,000 in June 2011 to 655,000 in June 2012. This shows that there is a huge opportunity for Startup to reap from the Fiber Broadband Market. 2. 3. 2.
Reap the Benefits from their Existing Market Figure 4: Data obtained from Singapore Telecommunications Report SQ 2012. Figure 5: Data obtained from GIGS 2012 Survey. As the Tells industry in Singapore is reaching saturation, the only way for Singlet, Startup and MI to grow is to increase the RAPID for each existing customer or to attract new customers from their competitors. Take for instance; there is an increase f only 0. 7% q-o-q and 4. 1% of y-o-y in Figure 4. The decelerating growth shows that the mobile sector is coming to saturation.
Startup has to focus more on generating higher revenue from their existing subscriber base by migrating pre-paid subscribers to post-paid subscribers while sustaining the pre-paid subscriber growth by targeting foreign workers, low-income consumers and long-staying tourists with more attractive promotions. Also, Startup can gain more market share from their competitors as many Singapore are reported being unhappy with Singlet’s customer service, reception and Minot slow start-up. MI’s customers are also most dissatisfied as it was reported that their number of complaints increases every year from 6. % in 2010, to 9. 1% in 2011 and 16. 3% 2012 the GIGS 2012 survey. 2. 4. Threats 2. 4. 1 . Exclusive Rights to Sports Channel Figure 6: Pay TV dropped by 2% due to the loss of PL Rights. Taken from Startup Annual Report 2012. Startup has a prevailing position in the Cable TV market due to a lack of competition for a couple of years. Thereafter, Startup’s position was challenged by Singlet when they won the rights for PL from 2010-2013. Subsequently, Singlet won 89,000 subscribers in 2011 while Startup only added ,000 subscribers.
Towards the end of June 2012, Singlet had 380,000 Minot subscribers while Startup had 543,000 subscribers (Business Monitor International 2012). The statistics will worsen the situation for Startup when it was announced that Singlet outbid Startup for the coveted rights of three more seasons of the English Premier League- 2013-2016. Singlet also aggressively acquired the rights for BEEF Europe League, BEEF Champions League, Series A, FAA Cup, and other prominent football tournaments. This will lead to Startup’s customer base switching over to Singlet for sports channel. . 4. 2. Singlet Narrow It’s Gap with Startup’s Channel Besides losing the bid of PL to Singlet, Singlet’s aggressive acquisition of content and customers will continue to erode Startup’s market share in Cable TV. Singlet’s Minot offerings have broadened significantly after it added 40 channels from Fox International Channels to its line-up on 1 Novo 12. With a new line-up of more than 130 channels, Singlet has substantially narrowed its gap with Startup (1 57 channels), diminishing Startup differentiation and dominance (Singapore Business Review 2013).
Secondly, MIM TV service offers potentially slightly cheaper offer (10%) s compared to Startup because of the direct like-for-like cost analysis for both Tells company as a result of product bundling differential on content. If Singlet beef up channel varieties, aggressive sales tactics, and addresses the network quality problems on PIPIT, the gap between Singlet and Startup will narrow drastically. 2. 4. 3. Mobile Data Services Business Monitor International (2012) predicted that the mobile data usage is likely to increase up to 25% or more of ARPA.
This could be due to increasing investors for next generation technologies such as LET and HASP+, which would drive more emend for mobile data service. In response to the dramatic growth of the demand, operators would accelerate their investment in these technologies. Strategy Analytics (2011) forecasted that operators who invest early will see improvements in gross margins after 2014. As MI is the first Tells in South East Asia to launch a nationwide G LET network, it gained a competitive edge over the rest. For now, Singlet has 80% coverage in Singapore, and in early 2013, it will have 95% coverage (Singlet, 2013).
Both MI and Singlet launched LET plans earlier than Startup which results in Startup lagging behind. Startup should accelerate their investment in the new generation LET and HASP+ infrastructure in order to prevent their subscribers from switching to other operators. 2. 4. 4. Sunset Industry Figure 7: Data obtained from Telecoms and Technology Industry Report in Singapore 2012. Figure 8: Data Obtained from Singapore Telecommunications Report SQ 2012. The fixed line business didn’t experience much growth in the first two quarters of 2012 which is attributed to the operators’ bundling strategy and consumers’ preference of mobile and Poop.
It is forecasted that in 2016, the AMONG could replace the fixed line arrive with Poop over fiber. As we can see from the market data above, the figure of telephone main lines has been forecasted to decline from 1. 407 in 2013 to 1,194 in 2016 while the mobile subscription is forecasted to rise from 8,648,000 in 2013 to 9,812,000 in 2016. Hence, Startup needs to offset this fading income (Business Monitor International 2012). In addition, there are lesser television viewers nowadays as they can download shows from the internet and they find that the free television programmer (Channel 5, Channel 8 etc) is sufficient.
In the black market, there is also n illegal box whereby consumers can get all the channels for free. As Startup requires the installation of cable, so many people don’t want to go through the hassle to pay for installation and ruin their existing outlook of their house. 2. 4. 5. Reallocation of Spectrum In 2012, there will be a proposed framework for the reallocation of spectrum for G telecommunication systems and service. With increasing spectrum available, it allows faster data transfer rates and provision of more innovative services (IDA, AAA). IDA will conduct a main auction that involves two bidding stages in 2013.
The bid that Leeds the highest total value will earn the final assignment. Based on the bidding for PL, Singlet has been very aggressive because they have the spending power and ability to challenge Startup and MI head on. This would be a potential threat for Startup as if they are unable to win the bid; Singlet would have a larger quantity of spectrums thus withholding a better connection than the rest As a result, the subscribers from the other two operators might switch to Singlet as their prices are undifferentiated hence the only unique selling point is the quality of products (IDA, Bibb). . Porter’s Five Forces Analysis . 1 . Competitive Rivalry The number of competitors will increase when new technologies are launched in this technologically complex market. They will compete for data intensive and high speed internet connection, hence heightening rivalry in the market (Industry Profile 2010). All three operators have three different markets to compete in such as Mobile, Broadband and Cable TV hence they can diversify their revenue sources. However, these services offered by the operators are fairly similar and this worsens the rivalry.
Besides the three existing operators, Singapore also saw new players such as Supernatant and LAG Telecoms and Imperceptibly. Overall, rivalry in this market can be evaluated as strong. 3. 2. Threat of New Entry Figure 9: Data obtained from Business Monitor International – ‘Singapore Telecommunications Report SQ 2012’. Potential entrants will be enticed by the dynamic market growth of Mobile, Broadband and Cable TV market. However, they will find it tough to compete with these established companies- Singlet, Startup and MI due to price competitions.
New operators without their own structure can buy entrance to the Tells market thus save the capital required to enter the market (Industry Profile 2010). Unfortunately, Singapore popular response for higher bandwidth might infer that the player needs to spend more to invest in the infrastructure for future growth. The saturated market indicates that the new entrants have to attract the customers away from their existing subscriber instead of targeting a new customer segment (Industry Profile 2012).
If Startup wants to grow their market share, they need to create more value-added services such as High- definition video chat, Mobile TV. New entrants need to differentiate themselves from the existing players with more attractive promotion plans, higher bandwidth or faster upload-download time. Take for instance, Imperceptibly enticed subscribers by promising not to bind the first 100,000 subscribers with contracts. By 2013, Imperceptibly boosted 17% market share of the fiber broadband consumer market within one year (Yahoo News 2013). Overall, threat of new entry in this market can be evaluated as strong. . 3. Buyer Power The key buyers are end-users. In this market, buyers have fairly low switching costs and are determined by the time needed to break the existing contract and switch to a competitor’s contract or with a cancellation penalty. Buyer power is strengthened, especially since full mobile number portability (NP) was launched in June 2008 (Industry Profile 2010). Brand reputation may play a part in switching operators, but ultimately the price is a bigger consideration for buyers along with factors such as the quality of connection, speed of access and existing bundling benefits.
Buyer power is weakened again due to the variety of potential customers available- individual customers, business corporations, foreign workers. With only three operators in the Tells industry, this translates into weak bargaining power of the errs as they do not have more choices to choose from. Moreover, in the broadband market, internet access is highly important for normal consumers and especially vital for business consumers. Overall, buyer power is measured as moderate in the Tells market. 3. 4. Supplier Power The key suppliers are manufacturers of software, hardware and network owners with substantial negotiating power.
This market is characterized by strong supplier power because of the high cost of switching as exiting a contract prematurely can be challenging (Industry Profile 2012). If the operator own and operate their own hysterical network then their suppliers would be manufacturers of software and hardware such as Cisco Systems. If the operator does not possess the network and acquire wholesale access to the infrastructure thereafter offering it to the end- parties, then the key suppliers would be the network owners. Take for instance, Startup purchased Fiber broadband from Opponent or Startup’s PL channel rights from PL itself.
Network manufacturers are not completely dependent on the Tells Operators’ market for their revenues as it’s by contractual rights (Industry Profile 2010). Generally, supplier power is evaluated as strong. 3. . Threat of Substitute Substitutes to this market are virtually non-existent because there isn’t any strong threat to Internet as a whole. The internet itself is a substitute for various services and products- egg, brick-and-mortar store to online stores. Overall, the strong market growth prevents any potential rivalry hence the low threat of substitution.